Saturday, January 13, 2007

10 reasons IPhone is going to be a Flop





Oh the dust storm of the wow factor at Macworld, yes the iPhone and Apple TV are indeed some new innovation from Apple (No longer Apple Computer, Inc). Hopefully with all intoxicating two hours key note on how Apple will be the new Sony. Plus Steve Job bending on declaration an all out war with everyone, not even mobile phone manufacturers were saved. So I waited patiently until all the cloud of Mac addicts would settled and I believe that everyone is really going to need a reality check on this little gadget here.





Sorry Steve Jobs, the honeymoon of hot air is over for the iPhone. I’m willing to bet that iPhone is heading toward the same direction just like the Zune. It's not that I’m sick of it already (well, maybe a bit), it's just time for Apple to answer some tough questions. Otherwise, it will be joining the ugly step children group just like the Zune, Sony PS3, and Segways. In the realm of "tech that looks absolutely amazing but is far too expensive for most people to even consider buying, Apple better be careful trying not to over hype this little sucker. So here is a few pointers iPhone will have to resolve before the product launch this coming June.

1. Form Factors: Have I seen you before ? Though iPhone is pretty and thin, but is it can be easily drop due to the lack of curves and slick finishing like the iPod. It’s definitely scratch prone device, additionally lacking a stylus or a traditional thumb board will sure put more unwanted smudge on the touch screen. So when was the last time you look at a screen filled with your thumb prints? Pretty disgusting right ? Perhaps Apple is specifically targeting non-professionals, as this is a largely untapped profitable market.

2. It’s the Service, Stupid: People might want the phone that Cingular has to offer, but in the long run it is the quality of the wireless product and services that keep customers (coverage, plan features, rates, etc.). Plus how much of quality content Apple will have to come up with to support the IPhone ecosystem? Better start making good friends with Youtube and Yahoo now. Perhaps the consumers in the US should get a second opinion from their futurist friends in Japan. After all they were enjoying this innovation with cutting edge technology for years prior the iPhone conception. Ultimately in the convergence arena of gadgets, it's the content that wins.


3. Kung Fu Texting: The number one usage for mobile around the world is still making phone calls and sending text messages. Have you ever tried power texting on a touch screen? I can assure you when doing a one handed kung fu texting on a touch screen, it pretty annoying. And how does one can do this on the iPhone? On its touchscreen? Let me know. So one-handed texting is out of question. I guess Steve Job is planning to have his peripheral partners begin selling yet another expensive bluetooth keyboard. Mind as well call it a PDA that play iTunes. Without a keyboard, this will be a titanic flop.


4.You don’t want Your Phone to be an Open Platform: This is a deal breaker for Steve Jobs, one Apple is late in the game with its "Smart-Phone" platforms. Two the market has already been flooded with other proven long term invested platform. (eg .Palm OS, Windows Mobile, and Symbian). Additionally these platforms are open to the end-user to developed and use third party applications without a hitch to their respective cellular network. Yes all the current smart-phones are capable of dispensing malicious application to the cell network. However at the end of the day it's the omnipresent layers of communication hardwares that win. Sorry Apple, if your mobile OS can wreck havoc the entire West Coast cell network into a coma, then you have no business getting into the mobile handset industry.

5. Jack of All Trades: Is the master of none, Convergence devices are only pretty in concept and only suited for some people. Also the compromises that you have to make in order to just carry one device most result in a undesirable response. Are people willing to give up their ultrahip Moto phones, which fit anywhere stealthy in their pocket? So that they can carry an 8GB digital storage camera phone. Oh wait may be I'm thinking about the Nokia N Series. It is yet to be seen that the consumers are willing to trade in their old 30-60 GB IPod for a Jack of all trades Apple Branded mobile device.

6. Proprietary is for Losers: One Lesson Apple should learn is from Sony, the list of gigantic flop from that company is longer than an Empire state building, from Betamax all the way to UMD. Why only limits the consumer to the iTune download only? If I cannot add my personal movies and Music collection from DVD and CD, who cares how great it will look on this touch screen if my hands are tied to rebuy everything.

7.Unforgetable Experience for One Time:
Yes the launch of iPod undoubtedly were the biggest technological marvel back in 2001. Because it was the first MP3 device to solve all the majors problems with the portable players, such as the lack of storage capacity in both Flash memory and Hard disk in those days. However those are not even an issue today. Also IPod won the hearts of the consumer with their dial navigation versus other cumbersome navigation systems from the manufacturer in the past. However in the handset business there are already an answer to those prayers a while back ago, they call it the Crackberry. So do you have the sand to take your touch screen on with those addictive little buttons, Steve?

8. It's Data Not Voice:With the rise of VOIP, the traditional voice business is heading to a dooming sunset. Also the lack of 3G support might merely be for a political reason, as the fact that Cingular's 3G coverage still has gaping holes outside of major U.S. cities. However Sprint has no problem with their mass deployment of EVDO network which is significantly faster than the Cingular network.The 3G question is very important to those who want to stream video and audio to their phone at any time without wardriving for a hotspot. Only if you're restricted to Wi-Fi hot spot to get your data and not using it in the backseat of a car, on the train, or sitting on a park bench. This will lose appeal quickly to the mobile professionals.

9. Total cost of ownership: The price of the ownership will be higher than the price tag for the mobile operator. 600 dollars are still pretty steep for a phone. Also what kind of user maintenance is required? Obviously the battery of this phone will only last for two years just like the service agreement. So the consumer will want the next generation of iPhone right away ? Even if the iPhone wears three hats, at the end Cingular will realized that it is too costly keeping it around in the long run for its consumers. You all know what happen to the Nokia Communicator right.

10. Experience: Samsung, Motorola, and Nokia have scoured the world's design schools and hired artists on three continents to keep their phones looking good. Motorola has recently revived its fortunes with design of the Razr. KDDI, a Japanese carrier, has a design showcase in the teen shopping area of Tokyo just to be close to trends. Apple, in other words, won't be competing against rather dullish, unstylish companies like the old Compaq. The handset companies move pretty quick and put out new models every few weeks. Perhaps Apple, Inc. should research the consumer behavior more thoroughly on the mobile market before diving in for an embarrassment.

15 comments:

Ashish Ranjan said...

some may or may not agree, with ur article; but surely you have a well-thought point.

Ashish Ranjan said...

Some may or may not agree, with ur article; but surely you have a well-thought point.

Kirk Sato said...

Well I'm not saying that it is doomed but Steve Job got until June to resolve all of these issues. Sure he can come up with a good hand of cards on marketing.

Anonymous said...

I suggest you buy the Zune phone when it comes out. I am sure it will fill all your wishes...

Kirk Sato said...

Hey if Microsoft is up to the challenge I'm all for it. Or may be they are smart enough to have someone else make the phone for them using Windows Mobile and not OSX

Kevin said...

I think developers would be excited to write widgets for the iPhone... if it's as easy as on the Mac, then we're all set! :)

Kirk Sato said...

However what about people who wants compatibility with their Microsoft products. Obviously there is going to be an issue on sync outlook, word, and so on.

Anonymous said...

Souns like someone's jeolous

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